The number of births fell from 144,718 in 2019/20 to 139,241 in 2020/21 (coinciding with the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown), which represented a 3.8% decrease in annual births. Following this, birth volumes nearly recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2021/22 (144,127), but then decreased again in 2022/23 (139,096). In the most recent year of available data, 2023/24, birth volumes have rebounded again to pre-pandemic levels (144,063). Notably, however, these “rebounds” in 2021/22 and 2023/24 do not represent a compensatory increase in births equivalent to the decreases seen in 2020/21 and 2022/23. In other words, in the last 4 years, there has been a net loss of more than 9,000 births across the province and these changes may have important impacts on demographic patterns and population planning in the future (for example, school enrollment).  

This volatility in recent birth volumes could be a signal of changing fertility intentions because of the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, in the spring of 2021, almost 11% of Canadian survey respondents aged 15 to 49 indicated that they wanted fewer children than before because of the pandemic, and around 14% indicated that they wanted a baby later than previously planned (Fostik and Galbraith, 2021).  

Internationally, a drop in births followed by a “rebound” was also documented in the USA (Maas, 2022). Decreases in birth volumes in 2020/21 followed by a rebound in 2021/22 were also observed in a study of 24 European countries (Pomar et al., 2022), although trends varied between countries depending on several factors, including income per capita and lockdown lengths. 

However, the trend of a decrease followed by a rebound in births was not observed everywhere. For example, while a drop in deliveries was observed in British Columbia in 2020/21 (dropped 3.3% from 2019/20), the volumes stayed consistent into 2021/22 (Perinatal Services BC, 2023). On the other hand, Australia saw an increase in births during the pandemic (Mooi-Reci et al., 2024). 

The decrease in births that we observed in 2022/23 aligns with preliminary data from a study of 38 higher-income countries, which showed a general downward trend in fertility in 2022 (Sobotka et al., 2023). As for 2023/24 birth volumes, more research is needed to see if this matches international trends. 

In general, annual birth volumes have been more volatile since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. More work is needed to understand these trends in the Ontario context.